How the forecast works.
Our proprietary model, trained on hundreds of shows, reads your sales to date, fits a curve, and forecasts how your show will finish.
The Curve
A 1,500-cap room, 29 days to doors
- Odds of selling out
- 72%
- Odds of breaking even
- 91%
- Projected final
- 1,483of 1,500
The band is the forecast's likely range. Figures are illustrative.
What builds the curve.
Every show we have measured follows the same three movements. The model learns how much of each is in yours.
The three movements
fitted to your pickup, then summed
01 Announce burst
The on-sale spike. Fans who were already waiting buy in the first week.
02 Steady drip
Background interest between announce and doors. It fades slowly — and it is most of the campaign.
03 Closeout surge
The at-the-door crowd. Near zero until the show is close, then it climbs fast.
Day-to-day sales are noisy — a slow Tuesday and a big Friday are both normal, and neither is a trend. The forecast allows for that, which is what gives the band its width.